Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.