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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.